Every football prediction site talks about accuracy, and very few explain what a realistic level looks like. This page sets out what our own analysis of real results says, so you can judge any source of predictions, including this one, against sensible expectations.
Exact scores
Correct score is the hardest prediction in football. Across five seasons of Europe’s top five leagues, the most common final score, 1-1, came up in only 12.2% of matches, and the five most common scores together covered just 44.2%. In a typical match, even the single most likely score has roughly an 11 to 12% chance.
That means a well-made correct score prediction should be wrong close to nine times in ten. A source that claims to land exact scores much more often than that over a long period is either measuring over a small, lucky sample or not telling the truth.
Match results
The match result is far more predictable, though still well short of certain. When we converted the closing bookmaker prices for 8,908 top-five league matches into probabilities, the side rated most likely to win did so 54.2% of the time. Teams rated around 65% won about 67% of their matches, and even favourites rated 70% or higher failed to win roughly one match in five.
So a strong record for a 1X2 prediction source is something a little above half right over hundreds of matches. A day where only half of the picks land is a normal day.
Goals
For over/under 2.5 goals, most matches are close to an even call. More than two thirds of the matches we measured were rated between 40% and 60% to produce three or more goals, and the ratings matched the real outcomes closely. Few predictions in this area are strongly one-sided, so a long-run hit rate in the mid-50s is a good result.
How to judge any prediction source
- Ask for a record covering hundreds of matches, not a good weekend.
- Check the percentages, not only the picks: a 75% call and a 45% call are different things.
- Compare the record with the realistic levels on this page.
- Be wary of anyone promising guaranteed or fixed results. No legitimate source can.
Predictions on this site are probabilities, and they are published for information. If you bet on them, you must be at least 18, and the money involved should be money you can spare.