Double Chance is a football betting market that allows you to cover two of the three possible match outcomes in a single bet. Instead of choosing between home win (1), draw (X), or away win (2) as in the standard 1X2 market, Double Chance lets you select 1X (home win or draw), X2 (draw or away win), or 12 (home win or away win). By covering two outcomes simultaneously, Double Chance significantly increases your probability of winning compared to a standard 1X2 bet, though the odds are correspondingly lower to reflect this increased probability. It is one of football betting’s most accessible and strategically useful markets.
Understanding the Three Double Chance Options
The 1X option covers both a home win and a draw, meaning your bet wins as long as the away team does not win. This is the most popular Double Chance selection because it combines the home advantage — home teams win approximately 45 percent of matches across major leagues — with the draw probability of approximately 26 percent, giving a combined probability of roughly 71 percent. The 1X bet is particularly useful when you believe the home team is stronger but want protection against the possibility of a draw.
The X2 option covers a draw and an away win, meaning your bet wins as long as the home team does not win outright. The combined probability of X2 is typically around 55 percent (26 percent draw plus 29 percent away win), making it less likely than 1X but still a majority probability. X2 is valuable when you believe the away team is genuinely competitive but you are not confident enough to bet on an outright away win. It provides a safety net for the draw outcome, which is the result most likely to cost a standard away win bet.
The 12 option, covering home win or away win (but not a draw), is the least commonly used Double Chance selection because it covers the two most extreme outcomes while excluding the middle ground. The combined probability is approximately 74 percent (45 percent home win plus 29 percent away win), which is actually the highest of the three options numerically. However, 12 bets are most useful in matches where a draw is unlikely — cup matches where one team must win, matches between teams of very different quality, or fixtures where both teams need a win for specific reasons and are unlikely to settle for a point.
The odds for Double Chance bets are calculated by combining the implied probabilities of the two covered outcomes and applying the bookmaker’s margin. Because you are covering such a large portion of the probability space, the odds are typically quite short — 1X bets often pay between 1.15 and 1.50, while X2 bets typically pay between 1.40 and 2.00, depending on the match. These short odds mean that Double Chance bets are most commonly used as components of accumulators rather than as standalone bets, where the combined odds of several short-priced selections can build to a more attractive overall payout.
When Double Chance Offers Value
Despite the apparently low odds, Double Chance bets can offer genuine value in specific situations. The key is identifying matches where the probability of the uncovered outcome is lower than the market implies. For example, if you assess that the away team has only a 15 percent chance of winning a match but the bookmaker’s pricing implies a 25 percent chance, the 1X Double Chance is underpriced relative to your assessment and offers positive expected value.
Matches involving significant quality mismatches in favour of the home team are natural 1X Double Chance candidates. When a top-four team hosts a relegation-threatened side, the probability of an away win is genuinely very low — perhaps 8 to 12 percent — making the 1X selection a near-certainty. While the odds may be only 1.08 to 1.15, the bet can serve as a reliable building block in an accumulator where the goal is to combine several high-probability selections into a meaningful combined payout.
Double Chance can also be valuable as a hedging tool. If you have placed a standard 1X2 bet on the home win and the match begins with the away team performing better than expected, you might place a live X2 Double Chance bet to protect your position. This hedging strategy limits your potential loss while maintaining some upside if the home team ultimately wins. The mathematics of hedging are more complex than straightforward betting, but Double Chance provides a convenient vehicle for this type of risk management.
Tournament and cup matches often present good Double Chance opportunities because the stakes are higher and teams’ behaviour becomes more predictable. In Champions League group stage matches where a team needs only a draw to qualify, they are likely to play conservatively, making the 1X or X2 Double Chance (depending on whether they are home or away) particularly attractive. The team’s strategic incentive aligns with a specific range of outcomes that the Double Chance market covers efficiently.
Double Chance vs Draw No Bet
Double Chance is frequently compared to the Draw No Bet market, and understanding the differences helps bettors choose the most appropriate option. Draw No Bet (DNB) refunds your stake if the match ends in a draw, meaning you win if your chosen team wins and lose only if they lose. The 1X Double Chance, by contrast, counts a draw as a winning outcome rather than a void one. This means 1X pays out on a draw (at the full combined odds), while DNB on the home team returns your stake on a draw (no profit, no loss).
The practical difference is in the odds. DNB odds on the home team are higher than 1X Double Chance odds because DNB involves more risk — you get nothing if the match draws, while 1X pays out. The choice between them depends on your risk appetite and your assessment of the draw probability. If you believe a draw is quite likely and want to profit from it, 1X is better. If you believe the chosen team will probably win but want insurance against a draw, DNB offers higher odds for the winning outcome while providing a safety net.
In accumulator building, DNB and Double Chance serve different purposes. A DNB selection that results in a draw voids that leg of the accumulator, reducing it from (say) a four-fold to a three-fold with adjusted combined odds. A Double Chance selection that results in a draw keeps the accumulator intact at the full number of legs. For accumulator bettors, this distinction is important because a voided leg reduces the overall payout, though it does not lose the bet entirely.
Double Chance and Correct Score Predictions
Double Chance probabilities are directly calculable from correct score predictions by summing the appropriate scoreline probabilities. For 1X, sum all scorelines where the home team wins or draws (1-0, 2-0, 2-1, 3-0, 3-1, 3-2, 0-0, 1-1, 2-2, etc.). For X2, sum all scorelines where the away team wins or draws. For 12, sum all scorelines where either team wins but exclude all draws. This calculation provides the precise probability for each Double Chance option, which can then be compared against the bookmaker’s implied probability to identify value.
At Correct Score Predict, our detailed scoreline probability models generate accurate predictions for all derivative markets including Double Chance. By providing the full distribution of scoreline probabilities, we enable users to evaluate not just the correct score market itself but also the full range of related markets where these probabilities are the underlying driver of fair pricing.
Double Chance is an excellent market for bettors who want to reduce risk while maintaining engagement with match outcomes. Its simplicity, flexibility, and compatibility with accumulator strategies make it a versatile tool in any bettor’s arsenal. Whether used as a standalone bet, an accumulator component, or a hedging instrument, understanding Double Chance helps you make more strategic and informed betting decisions.
Our analysis at Correct Score Predict covers the full spectrum of betting markets, helping you identify the most appropriate bet type for each match based on your risk tolerance, confidence level, and overall betting strategy.
