The Champions League doesn’t score like domestic football. There are fewer draws, more goals and many more mismatches, and the commonest score in the group and league phase isn’t 1-1. It’s 2-0. A correct score habit from the Premier League or La Liga needs adjusting before it works in Europe.
The table below lists Champions League fixtures with a predicted score for each. The predictions come from an outside provider and we show them as published. The notes use 753 Champions League matches from 2021/22 to 2025/26 to show what the scores really look like.
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How a correct score bet works
The score after 90 minutes plus added time decides the bet. In knockout ties, extra time and penalties don’t count for correct score in most bookmakers’ rules, and the result of the second leg or the aggregate doesn’t matter either. So the score you’re predicting is the score of one match, not of the tie. Own goals count for the team credited with them, and postponed matches are normally void.
How Champions League scores differ
We split the data into the group and league phase (576 matches) and the knockout rounds (172), and compared both with 14,617 domestic league matches from our other pages.
| Group and league phase | Knockout matches | Domestic leagues | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home win | 49.7% | 46.5% | 43.4% |
| Draw | 17.4% | 22.1% | 26.2% |
| Away win | 33.0% | 31.4% | 30.4% |
| Goals per match | 3.22 | 3.08 | 2.72 |
| Won by three goals or more | 25% | 20% | 14% |
The group and league phase has the fewest draws, and one match in four is won by three goals or more. That’s because the competition puts champions of small countries against the richest clubs in Europe, and the scores show it.
The commonest scores
| Score | Group and league phase | Knockout rounds |
|---|---|---|
| 2-0 | 9.0% | 5.8% |
| 1-0 | 8.3% | 11.0% |
| 2-1 | 7.8% | 5.8% |
| 1-1 | 6.9% | 11.0% |
| 1-2 | 5.7% | 5.8% |
| 0-0 | 5.7% | 4.1% |
In the group and league phase the commonest score is 2-0, and 1-1 is only fourth. In the knockout rounds the picture changes. 1-0 and 1-1 each cover 11%, which is much closer to domestic football, because the two sides are closer in quality.
The spread of scores is wide. There were 46 different final scores across the 753 matches, and 44 in the 576 group and league-phase matches alone.
Home advantage in Europe
Home advantage is bigger in the Champions League than in most domestic leagues. In the group and league phase the home side won 50% of matches and scored in 80% of them. The visitors were scoreless in 33%. Home wins by two goals or more were 30% of matches, against 18% for away wins by two or more.
That makes a predicted home win of 2-0 or 3-0 more believable here than it would be in Italy or Greece. It also means that when the away side is the favourite, a predicted 1-0 or 2-0 away win carries more risk than the table might suggest.
The new league phase
In 2024/25 the format changed from eight groups of four to one 36-team league phase. Draws fell to 12.5% in that first season, the lowest of any season in our sample, and 1-0 was the commonest score at 12.5%. In 2025/26 draws rose to 17.4%, goals averaged 3.38 and 67% of matches went over 2.5.
Two seasons is a small base, but the league phase hasn’t made the competition tighter. If anything, it has more goals.
How clubs from each country fared
In the group and league phase, English clubs won 65% of their 152 matches. German clubs won 49%, French 47%, Spanish 46% and Italian 46%.
Portuguese clubs won 43%, Dutch clubs 43% and Belgian clubs 33%.
English clubs scored 2.19 goals a match and conceded just 1.00, the best goal difference of any country by a distance. Italian clubs scored the fewest of the big five countries, at 1.55, and drew the most, at 21.5%.
The five finals
| Season | Final (90 minutes) |
|---|---|
| 2021/22 | Liverpool 0-1 Real Madrid |
| 2022/23 | Manchester City 1-0 Inter |
| 2023/24 | Borussia Dortmund 0-2 Real Madrid |
| 2024/25 | Paris Saint-Germain 5-0 Inter |
| 2025/26 | Paris Saint-Germain 1-1 Arsenal (PSG won 4-3 on penalties) |
Three of the five finals finished 1-0 or 2-0 inside 90 minutes, and one was the 5-0 in 2025. The 2026 final in Budapest was level after 90 minutes, which a correct score bet treats as a 1-1.
Reading a Champions League row
If the table gives a big club at home a predicted 2-0, that’s the commonest group and league-phase score and a fair pick. If it gives 1-1, it’s the fourth in that stage but joint second in the knockouts. A predicted 0-0 is rare in the group stage, and even rarer in the knockouts at 4%.
Pay attention to the stage. A predicted 3-0 in September against a team from a smaller league is much more plausible than the same score in a quarter-final.
Five rules we follow
- Start with 2-0 in the league phase. It’s the commonest score.
- Switch to 1-0 and 1-1 in the knockouts. They’re 22% of matches between them.
- Allow for mismatches. A quarter of group and league-phase matches were won by three goals or more.
- Know the clubs. Italian sides draw more, English sides win more.
- Keep stakes small. The commonest score is 9%.
Common mistakes
The commonest mistake is using domestic habits. In England or Spain a 1-1 is the commonest score by a wide margin. Here it’s fourth in the group phase.
Another is forgetting how much the stage matters. A league-phase match between a top club and a minnow produces different scores from a quarter-final.
The third is predicting a draw because the tie is balanced. A single leg is a single match, and in the group and league phase draws were only 17%.
Questions about Champions League correct scores
What’s the commonest Champions League score? 2-0 in the group and league phase (9%), and 1-0 and 1-1 in the knockouts (11% each).
How many goals does a Champions League match have? About 3.2 in the group and league phase.
Are there more draws in Europe than at home? No. 17% against 26% domestically.
Does extra time count? Not for correct score in most bookmakers’ rules.
How did the 2026 final finish? 1-1 after 90 minutes, with PSG winning 4-3 on penalties against Arsenal.
Which country’s clubs win most? English clubs won 65% of their group and league-phase matches.
Where can I see other predictions? Try 1X2 for today or over and under 2.5. For the second competition, see the Europa League page.
These are estimates and nothing more. You must be 18 or over to bet, and you should only use money you can afford to lose.