The Bundesliga is the hardest league in the big five to predict scores for. Goals are plentiful, with 3.23 a match, and they’re spread over more different scores than anywhere else. The commonest score, 1-1, is only 9.2% of matches. And the commonest total number of goals isn’t two or three, as it is in most leagues. It’s four.
The table below lists German fixtures with a predicted score. The predictions come from an outside provider and we show them as published. The notes underneath use 666 Bundesliga results from July 2024 to October 2026 to show how German scores behave.
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How a correct score bet works
The bet wins only if the match ends exactly as you named it after 90 minutes plus added time. Extra time and penalties are ignored, so a cup tie that’s 3-3 after 90 minutes is a 3-3. Own goals count towards the team that benefits, and an abandoned match usually voids the bet. Check the rules where you place the bet, because bookmakers differ on the details.
A league of many scores
| Score | Share of Bundesliga matches |
|---|---|
| 1-1 | 9.2% |
| 2-1 | 7.1% |
| 2-2 | 6.6% |
| 1-2 | 6.6% |
| 1-0 | 6.3% |
| 3-1 | 5.9% |
No score reaches 10%, and the top five together cover just 36% of matches. In La Liga it’s 52%. We counted 41 different final scores in the Bundesliga sample. Only Ligue 1, with 42, had more. A 1-0 home win, which is the most common result in most leagues, ranks only fifth here.
That’s the problem for a correct score bettor. If the best single guess is 9%, you’ll be wrong about ten times in eleven, and the second-best guess is only 7%.
Why four goals is the commonest total
| Goals in the match | Share of Bundesliga matches |
|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7% |
| 1 | 12.2% |
| 2 | 19.4% |
| 3 | 18.9% |
| 4 | 21.6% |
| 5 | 11.0% |
| 6 or more | 11.3% |
Four goals is the commonest total at 22%, and matches with four or more goals were 44% of the sample, which is more than the share with two or three. Over 2.5 landed in 63% of matches, and over 1.5 in 82%. Both teams scored in 59%.
Scorelines such as 3-1, 2-2, 3-2 and 4-1 all become realistic here. A 4-0 or 5-0 isn’t rare either. Matches won by three goals or more were 19% of the total, against 14% across all our leagues.
Home advantage
Home sides won 42% of matches, which is lower than in Spain or France, and away sides won 34%. But home sides still scored more: 1.75 goals against 1.47. A home win by two goals or more happened in 24.5% of matches, and an away win by two or more in 17.0%. So when Bundesliga sides win, they often win clearly.
Bayern, Dortmund and Leverkusen
These are from each club’s point of view over 74 league matches each:
| Club | Won / drew / lost | Goals for / against | Commonest scores (club first) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich | 77% / 19% / 4% | 3.28 / 0.99 | 3-0 (11%), 3-2 and 4-0 (9.5% each), 5-0 (8%) |
| Dortmund | 58% / 20% / 22% | 2.05 / 1.20 | 2-0 (13.5%), 3-2 (9.5%) |
| Leverkusen | 54% / 28% / 18% | 2.11 / 1.34 | 1-1 (11%), 2-0 and 3-1 (9.5% each), 2-2 (8%) |
Bayern’s matches averaged 4.27 goals, far above the league’s 3.23. They won 84% of their home games and 70% of their away games. Leverkusen kept a clean sheet in only 26% of matches, and both teams scored in 68% of their games.
Bayern finished top in 2024/25 on 82 points, with Leverkusen second on 69. In 2025/26 Bayern topped the table again on 89, with Dortmund second on 73.
Reading a German row
Say the table predicts 2-1 for a home side. That’s the league’s second-commonest score at 7.1%, so it’s a reasonable pick, but it still misses more than nine times in ten. A predicted 1-0 is even worse here, at 6.3%, and a 0-0 is only 5.7%.
When the table’s goals figure is 3.5 or more, the likeliest results shift towards 3-1, 2-2 and 3-2. In the Bundesliga a match with three or more goals isn’t unusual at all: 62% of games had at least three. So a low-scoring prediction needs a reason. Look at whether the table is showing a defensive side, or a team that’s already won the league and is cruising.
For Bayern at home, the commonest scores are all three or more goals for them, and a 1-0 doesn’t feature. If you see 1-0 predicted for a Bayern home match, it’s a result the club’s record shows only rarely.
Five rules we follow
- Don’t pick a score only because it’s common. The commonest is 9%.
- Think in totals first. Three, four and five goals each cover about a fifth of matches.
- Allow for big wins. Nearly one match in five is decided by three goals or more.
- Look at the club. Bayern’s matches have more goals than the league’s.
- Keep stakes small. There’s no safe score in this league.
Common mistakes
The commonest mistake is predicting 1-0 because it’s the most common result elsewhere. In the Bundesliga it’s only 6.3%.
Another is underestimating Bayern. Their commonest scores include 3-0, 4-0 and 5-0, and together those three make up nearly 30% of their league matches.
The third is treating a draw as a quiet result. More than a quarter of Bundesliga draws were 2-2.
Questions about Bundesliga correct scores
What’s the commonest Bundesliga score? 1-1, at 9% of matches.
How many goals does a Bundesliga match have? 3.23 on average, the most in the big five.
What’s the commonest number of goals? Four, in 22% of matches.
Which club scores the most? Bayern Munich, at 3.28 goals a match.
Is over 2.5 a good bet in the Bundesliga? It landed in 63% of matches, the highest of any big-five league, but it’s still not certain.
Who won the Bundesliga in 2025/26? Bayern Munich finished top on 89 points.
Where can I see other predictions? Try over and under 2.5 for today or both teams to score. For another league, see the French page.
These are estimates and nothing more. You must be 18 or over to bet, and the stake should come from money you can afford to lose.